Australia vs England, 1st ODI prediction: Perth Stadium, Perth
Projected first innings
| Batting first | Projection | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 254 | 202–306 |
| England | 270 | 218–322 |
The range is the projection plus or minus its typical error in ODI; about two results in three land inside it.
| Built from | Ground | Home | Recent form | Teams & pitch | Signal check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 230 | +19 | +0 | +5 | +0 |
| England | 230 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +38 |
Win probability
| Team | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | 60.0% | 1.67 |
| England | 40.0% | 2.50 |
Fair odds are what the probability implies with no bookmaker margin. They are not a recommendation to bet.
The ground
Most recent first innings here in this format: 259, 152, 140.
Read with care
- Perth Stadium has hosted only four men's ODIs. The three completed first innings were 259, 152 and 140, so we use a blended baseline of 230, explained on the ground page.
- Australia are without Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood (rested) and Ellis (injured), and Green may not bowl. England bat deep: Joe Root averages 65 in ODIs since late 2024, and England passed 350 in five of their last eight games batting first. Bethell, Tongue and Buttler are out.
- Two independent signals point up for England batting first: our model has run about 22 runs low on England batting first since 2025 (17 ODIs), and Australia are missing their three main quicks. The bookmaker line of 294.5 is higher still. We raised England's projection from 232 to 270.
- For Australia batting first we kept 254. The only upward signal is the market, and Perth's early-season record (Australia 152 and 140, both in November) points the other way.
- Win probability comes from full-strength team ratings and likely overrates Australia without their first-choice pace attack.
Checked before publishing
- Fixture and start time (11:30 local, 03:30 UTC, 09:00 IST) confirmed from ECB, Wisden and cricket.com.au
- Squads: Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood rested, Ellis injured, Beardman debuts; England without Bethell, Tongue and Buttler
- Weather: dry and warm, no rain expected
- Market: bookmaker first-innings line 294.5, about 40 above both our figures; reasons in the notes
- Signal check: two independent upward signals for England batting first (+38); one signal only for Australia, no change
- Ground baseline for Perth Stadium ODIs set on 10 November (only four matches)
Playing XI and weather are checked but not weighted in the number — see why.
Run it yourself
Change the toss, the pitch setting or the line-ups in the projection tool, or ask @CricParBot on Telegram. Previews and results are posted to @CricParAnalysis.