New Zealand vs India, 1st ODI prediction: Eden Park, Auckland
Projected first innings
| Batting first | Projection | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 290 | 238–342 |
| India | 282 | 230–334 |
The range is the projection plus or minus its typical error in ODI; about two results in three land inside it.
| Built from | Ground | Home | Recent form | Teams & pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 275 | +19 | +0 | -4 |
| India | 275 | +0 | +0 | +7 |
Win probability
| Team | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 47.7% | 2.10 |
| India | 52.3% | 1.91 |
Fair odds are what the probability implies with no bookmaker margin. They are not a recommendation to bet.
The ground
Most recent first innings here in this format: 273, 306, 274, 290.
Read with care
- Eden Park's long-run ODI first-innings average is 245 across 29 matches since 2004, pulled down by low scores from the 2000s. The four completed first innings since 2020 were 273, 306, 274 and 290 (average 286).
- Our own check points the same way: on 2025-26 ODIs the model ran about 27 to 29 runs low when New Zealand or India batted first. Two independent signals in the same direction, so we raised the ground baseline from 245 to 275 before publishing. We stopped short of the recent 286.
- Bookmaker first-innings lines are higher than ours, around 305 to 314. We looked for a reason to go further and did not find an independent one: the recent scores here are already in the 275, while New Zealand's missing batters and a cool, showery forecast point the other way. Both lines sit inside our range.
- New Zealand are short-handed: Chapman (hamstring) and Ravindra (shoulder) are out, Conway is likely to miss with concussion and Henry is a doubt. Our team ratings do not weigh the playing XI. India have Rohit, Gill and Kohli; Bumrah and Hardik are not in the squad.
- Chasing has won 16 of 27 decided ODIs here, but sides batting first won 5 of the last 8. India's last ODI at Eden Park, in 2022, was lost defending 306.
Checked before publishing
- Fixture and start time (15:00 local, 02:00 UTC, 07:30 IST) confirmed from Wisden, ESPN and Mykhel
- Squads: Chapman and Ravindra out, Conway likely out (concussion), Henry doubtful for New Zealand; India at near full strength. The playing XI is not weighted
- Weather: cool with a chance of showers around the start, little rain expected; a reduced-overs game is possible but not likely
- Market: bookmaker first-innings lines of 304.5 and 313.5, above our numbers but inside the range; reasons in the notes
- Ground baseline raised from 245 to 275 (recent completed innings and a model backtest), stated above
- Cricsheet data refreshed on 30 October; recent-form correction is not used in ODIs
Playing XI and weather are checked but not weighted in the number — see why.
Run it yourself
Change the toss, the pitch setting or the line-ups in the projection tool, or ask @CricParBot on Telegram. Previews and results are posted to @CricParAnalysis.