New Zealand vs India, 2nd T20I prediction: Hagley Oval, Christchurch
Result
New Zealand batted first and made 180/5. India won by 4 wickets.
| Our projection for New Zealand | 193 |
| Actual | 180 (-13) |
| Inside the projected range | ✅ yes |
| Favourite (India, 54.3%) won | ✅ yes |
The projection below is exactly as published before the match.
Projected first innings
| Batting first | Projection | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 193 | 164–222 |
| India | 197 | 168–226 |
The range is the projection plus or minus its typical error in T20; about two results in three land inside it.
| Built from | Ground | Home | Recent form | Teams & pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 175 | +19 | +6 | -7 |
| India | 175 | +0 | +14 | +8 |
Win probability
| Team | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 45.7% | 2.19 |
| India | 54.3% | 1.84 |
Fair odds are what the probability implies with no bookmaker margin. They are not a recommendation to bet.
The ground
Most recent first innings here in this format: 236, 187, 225.
Read with care
- First preview with the recent-form correction: our previous seven projections had all come in too low.
- Hagley Oval's baseline was raised from 162 to 175 after 236, 187 and 225 in its last three T20Is.
- India still run ahead of the model in 2026, even after the correction.
Checked before publishing
- Fixture, venue and start time confirmed from two sources
- Squads and injuries: no change since the first match
- Weather: dry and warm forecast
Playing XI and weather are checked but not weighted in the number — see why.
Run it yourself
Change the toss, the pitch setting or the line-ups in the projection tool, or ask @CricParBot on Telegram. Previews and results are posted to @CricParAnalysis.