New Zealand vs India, 4th ODI prediction: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Projected first innings
| Batting first | Projection | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 240 | 188–292 |
| India | 276 | 224–328 |
The range is the projection plus or minus its typical error in ODI; about two results in three land inside it.
| Built from | Ground | Home | Recent form | Teams & pitch | Signal check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 268 | +19 | +0 | -4 | -43 |
| India | 268 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +0 |
Win probability
| Team | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 47.7% | 2.10 |
| India | 52.3% | 1.91 |
Fair odds are what the probability implies with no bookmaker margin. They are not a recommendation to bet.
The ground
Most recent first innings here in this format: 296, 202, 223.
Read with care
- India lead the series 2-0. New Zealand batted first in both completed games and made 185 and 134.
- New Zealand's side for the last two games is much weaker with the bat. Daryl Mitchell (ODI average 65 since late 2024), Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham have left for the Test series, Devon Conway is concussed and Rachin Ravindra injured.
- Bay Oval's long-run ODI average of 268 leans on big 2019 scores (371, 319, 324). The completed 50-over first innings since 2022 were 202 and 223.
- Those three signals are independent and all point down for New Zealand batting first, so we lowered that projection from 283 to 240 before publishing. For India batting first they cancel out (the ground points down, India's batting up), so 276 stays.
- The bookmaker first-innings line is 280.5: close to our India figure, 40 above our New Zealand one. India have won 7 of 8 tosses on this tour and bowled first every time.
- Win probability comes from full-strength team ratings and does not see the missing players. We think it understates India.
Checked before publishing
- Fixture and start time (15:00 local, 02:00 UTC, 07:30 IST) confirmed from Wisden and Cricinfo
- Squads: Mitchell, Phillips, Latham gone to the Test squad; Conway (concussion), Tickner (concussion), Ferguson (calf), Ravindra out; Henry being assessed. India without Gill, Rahul and Kamboj; Rohit, Kohli and Iyer play
- Weather: dry, no rain expected
- Market: bookmaker first-innings line 280.5
- Signal check: three independent downward signals for New Zealand batting first (-43); none adopted for India
- The 1st and 2nd ODIs are not yet in our data source; their scores were used by hand
Playing XI and weather are checked but not weighted in the number — see why.
Run it yourself
Change the toss, the pitch setting or the line-ups in the projection tool, or ask @CricParBot on Telegram. Previews and results are posted to @CricParAnalysis.