New Zealand vs India, 4th T20I prediction: Eden Park, Auckland
Result
New Zealand batted first and made 259/7. New Zealand won by 87 runs.
| Our projection for New Zealand | 181 |
| Actual | 259 (+78) |
| Inside the projected range | ❌ no |
| Favourite (India, 54.3%) won | ❌ no |
A big miss: 78 runs above our projection, well outside the range. Glenn Phillips made 107 off 49 balls. Eden Park's last five full first innings are now 204, 164, 207, 136 and 259, so its 162 baseline is under review.
The projection below is exactly as published before the match.
Projected first innings
| Batting first | Projection | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 181 | 152–210 |
| India | 184 | 155–213 |
The range is the projection plus or minus its typical error in T20; about two results in three land inside it.
| Built from | Ground | Home | Recent form | Teams & pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 162 | +19 | +7 | -7 |
| India | 162 | +0 | +14 | +8 |
Win probability
| Team | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 45.7% | 2.19 |
| India | 54.3% | 1.84 |
Fair odds are what the probability implies with no bookmaker margin. They are not a recommendation to bet.
The ground
Most recent first innings here in this format: 204, 164, 207, 136.
Read with care
- Eden Park's long-run first-innings average is 162 from 33 men's T20Is. Its last four full first innings (204, 164, 207, 136) average 178, but they are too scattered to justify a seasonal adjustment, so the baseline stays at 162.
- New Zealand have batted first in all three games of this series and made 225, 180 and 198, above our projections each time. India chased every target, the last one (199) in 13.2 overs.
- Eden Park has short straight boundaries; in our data sides choosing to field after winning the toss won only 30% of the time here, from a small sample.
Checked before publishing
- Fixture and start time (07:00 UTC, 12:30 IST) confirmed from two sources
- Squads: Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry are out injured for New Zealand, Matt Fisher has joined the squad. India may rotate with the series won 3-0. Bowling strength is not weighted in the model, so the projection does not move for this
- Weather: dry forecast for the evening (night game, 20:00 local). Earlier forecasts had shown a small chance of showers
- Market check: bookmaker lines point to totals around 190, slightly above our 181/184 but within our 15-run tolerance
- Cricsheet data refreshed on 29 October; the third T20I is not yet included
Playing XI and weather are checked but not weighted in the number — see why.
Run it yourself
Change the toss, the pitch setting or the line-ups in the projection tool, or ask @CricParBot on Telegram. Previews and results are posted to @CricParAnalysis.