New Zealand vs India, 5th T20I prediction: Seddon Park, Hamilton
Result
India batted first and made 191/8. New Zealand won by 7 wickets (12 balls left).
| Our projection for India | 202 |
| Actual | 191 (-11) |
| Inside the projected range | ✅ yes |
| Favourite (India, 54.3%) won | ❌ no |
Close on the total: India made 191, 11 below our 202 and inside the range. The bookmaker line we saw after publishing was 208.5, so our number was nearer. Our favourite India (54.3%) lost: Tim Seifert made 93 and Glenn Phillips 65 not out as New Zealand chased with two overs to spare. India won the series 3-2.
The projection below is exactly as published before the match.
Projected first innings
| Batting first | Projection | Likely range |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 202 | 173–231 |
| India | 202 | 173–231 |
The range is the projection plus or minus its typical error in T20; about two results in three land inside it.
| Built from | Ground | Home | Recent form | Teams & pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 180 | +19 | +10 | -7 |
| India | 180 | +0 | +14 | +8 |
Win probability
| Team | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 45.7% | 2.19 |
| India | 54.3% | 1.84 |
Fair odds are what the probability implies with no bookmaker margin. They are not a recommendation to bet.
The ground
Most recent first innings here in this format: 163, 210, 194, 175.
Read with care
- Seddon Park's first innings average 180 across 14 men's T20Is; the last four full innings (163, 210, 194, 175) average 186, close enough that the baseline stays.
- New Zealand's recent-form figure is updated by hand with the 3rd and 4th T20Is (198 and 259), which our data source has not published yet. Same formula as always: it moves from +7 to +10.
- New Zealand have batted first in every game of this series and beaten our projection three times out of four. After the Eden Park miss we now weigh such signals together before publishing; here only this one points clearly up, and it is already in the form figure.
- Sides batting first won 8 of 13 decided T20Is here. India's last T20I at this ground, in 2020, was a tie after both sides made 179.
Checked before publishing
- Fixture and start time (20:00 local, 07:00 UTC, 12:30 IST) confirmed from two sources
- Squads: Ferguson and Henry still out for New Zealand. Both sides may rotate in the final game; the playing XI is not weighted
- Weather: mild and mostly dry forecast
- Market: no bookmaker line was available at the time of publishing
- Cricsheet data refreshed on 30 October; the 3rd and 4th T20Is are not yet included, so New Zealand's form was updated by hand
Playing XI and weather are checked but not weighted in the number — see why.
Run it yourself
Change the toss, the pitch setting or the line-ups in the projection tool, or ask @CricParBot on Telegram. Previews and results are posted to @CricParAnalysis.